March, like February, was cold in its commencement, but Spring was now advancing with gigantic strides, and already announced its advent by a rapid and luxuriant vegetation quite unparalleled in our own more equable climate. The long-desired change was soon distinctly visible also in its effect upon the condition of the cattle, and on the health and spirits of the men, who, relieved from excess of work, and no longer suffering from exposure to an inclement sky, were urged at once by leisure and inclination to renew the long-forgotten sports of their native village green. Under these improved conditions, officers and men were eagerly looking forward to an active resumption of the siege, now so long in abeyance, when the sudden intelligence of the death of the Emperor Nicholas eclipsed for the moment the interest attaching to all other subjects, and diverted into a new channel the ever-restless spirit of speculation.
So completely identified in the minds of most men had the late Czar been considered with the war, in which he was generally felt to be not only carrying out the hereditary and traditional policy of the empire, but also to be stimulated by the strongest feelings of wounded pride and personal pique, that it was not unnaturally conjectured that the difficulties which had hitherto forbidden the conclusion of peace would now be at an end. The Emperor Nicholas was pledged by every consideration of prudence and ambition to the successful issue of the terrible struggle to which he had challenged the nations of the West: on this hazard he had staked the reputation of a lifetime for political wisdom and practical sagacity — the prestige which he had painfully acquired and steadily fostered among all the nations of Europe: and, more than all, his ow n personal and all-powerful influence over the people who acknowledged his sway, and had hitherto regarded him as all but infallible. While he lived, therefore, it was to be anticipated that, once plunged into the war, he would exhaust every resource and brave every peril rather than submit to a defeat, which for him would have amounted to political extinction. No such foregone conclusions hampered his successor, who, it was argued,
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might, without sacrificing dignity or consistency, gracefully inaugurate his opening reign by restoring to his people and the world the inestimable blessing of peace.
These sanguine anticipations resulted fi-om a too-willing credence yielded to the oft-repeated fallacy that the war was unpopular in Russia, and from a very general ignorance of the power and influence possessed at the court of St. Petersburg by the old Muscovite or War party. Every reverse of the Russian army had been so confidently represented as a triumph to a people compelled to rely for information on a government interested to deceive them, that an abrupt conclusion of peace, followed by the inevitable revelations which must succeed, would have shaken, perhaps subverted, the throne of Alexander II. War therefore became, though for different reasons, as necessary a policy to that monarch as to his father, and the abortive result of the Vienna negociations was the natural consequence of the bad faith in which they were entered into on the part of Russia, who saw in them only an expedient for gaining time.
During the last year a different tone has pervaded the despatches from the enemy's military commanders in the Crimea, and the Russian mind has been so gradually prepared for the possibility of an unfavourable issue of the war, that now, when the moment of exhaustion has actually arrived, the people, driven by their own sufferings to long for peace, will probably regard its attainment, not only without surprise, but with satisfaction and delight. Beyond a change in the supreme command in the Crimea, which was now transferred from Prince Menschikoff to Prince Gortschakoff II., the removal fx'om the scene of European politics of an actor who for so many years had played on that scene by far the most conspicuous part, was unattended by any immediately perceptible effect upon the situation of affairs. It were idle now to speculate upon what might have been the course of events had the Czar's life been prolonged; the ultimate issue would in all probability have been identical, nay even more decidedly favourable to the interests of Western Europe: but the extensive experience, the restless energy, the unbending will, the intellect at once subtle and profound, which combined constituted the vast personal ascendancy of that great and remarkable man, could not but have exerted an influence in prolonging and embittering the contest, from which he had deliberately excluded all possibility of reti-eat.
Sanguine however were the anticipations aroused by the great event of the day, to which, on its first announcement by Lord Raglan to the enemy,